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by TrialSite Staff

Achieving so-called “herd immunity” underpins the major mass vaccination drive, the premier goal of the Joe Biden presidency thus far. Represented by the targeted goal of at least 70% of Americans with at least one jab, is the underlying rationale sound here? But what is herd immunity and, importantly, what is needed for achieving this status? COVID-19 vaccines don’t actually prevent SARS-CoV-2-based infection and moreover don’t stop viral shedding once infected. A 90%+ effective rare for the vaccines means actually that once an individual develops COVID-19, they have more protection, reducing the risks of complications from disease progression such as hyperinflammatory syndrome. While predicting disease necessitates viral infection, that’s not enough as many get infected yet don’t develop the disease. All of this matters for the goal of herd immunity, again the very point of why POTUS seeks a target of 70% of the American population treated to at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccines (e.g. Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, or Johnson and Johnson). 

As shared by TrialSite advisory committee member Dr. Robert Malone, the milestone called herd immunity actually precludes the viral infection prerequisite as “Reaching herd immunity requires no viral infections—no viral spreading—in the group (herd). No viral shedding. But the vaccines do not prevent either infection or shedding.” As Dr. Malone recently emphasized, this is a #Sciencefact not a PolitiFact.

The Challenge

Again, the premise in the 70% POTUS directive: that American society is driving to “Herd Immunity” collectively with each jab. But how can this be the case when the actual effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing transmission of the virus (transmissibility) isn’t actually known? That’s right; at present, it’s not known just how effective the vaccines are at preventing transmission. If in fact transmissibility was known, that is to say that based on extensive study scientists could measure the COVID-19 vaccines’ were 50%, or 70% or 20% effective, then biostatistical calculations can be programmed into algorithms which will predict the segment of the populace that would need to have been inoculated to reach that milestone called herd immunity.

However, to actually achieve this goal necessitates granular data heretofore not known nor currently available. That is, what is the reduction in viral transmissibility rates for each vaccine? Scientists must be able to measure, quantitatively as well as aggregate mean calculations concerning just how effective each vaccine actually is in preventing person-to-person transmission. But presently, these data aren’t known.

Moreover, these vital underlying data (transmissibility rates), a fundamental prerequisite to perform the calculations that could lead to the herd immunity target assessment, were not required by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for neither clinical studies nor licensure. Rather, the FDA was concerned with disease prevention as an urgent endpoint, with an emphasis on hospitalization and death. 

Media & Pundits

So let’s do a review of what media, pundits, and other so-called experts correlate the POTUS goal with herd immunity.  According to the Baltimore Sun editorial board, if we don’t reach 70% goal by July 4^th then we have only ourselves to blame. These enlightened characters declare, “Of course if the July 4 deadline passes and the magic number is not yet met, that doesn’t mean the vaccine effort has failed or will stop. The effort must be kept up until we reach herd immunity…or we risk another outbreak…” Now these pundits and purported experts could be confusing the use of an anti-SARS-CoV-2 virus drug effectiveness with a vaccine as these necessitate different algorithms.

Are the Blind Leading the Blind?

Now with this important information in mind, it’s important to revisit the federal government’s goal of the 70% target by July 4^th, 2012. Or there is Johns Hopkins epidemiologist Gypsyamber D’Souza with Johns Hopkins University quoted in the Washington Post explaining how the jabs help achieve herd immunity. Or a real expert in these matters, a business writer Robert Hart on Forbes staff, who pens “It’s possible immunizing 70% of Americans would reach the herd immunity threshold needed to stop the viral spreading” and then goes on a discourse of facts and figures with no bearing on the actual reality. And it goes on and on to POTUS himself who has used the term without really understanding what it means and what one actually needs to calculate its arrival.

Words of Wisdom

The TrialSite Community should look into this matter, studying the underlying assumptions, and consider multiple sources to ensure verification of any new knowledge. And the next time either a public health official or some media talking head declares that the inoculation of a certain percentage of the populace is required for the bid to reach “herd immunity”, then step back and remember that based on the lack of sufficient data today—again for the reasons mentioned above—you can conclude that they are clueless.  Remember the data required to support such calculations do not exist.

 “The people will believe what the media tells them they believe”

George Orwell

Source:

U.S. Federal Government Doesn’t Possess the Data to Calculate Transmissibility & Thus No Vaccination Target Can Foretell ‘Herd Immunity’